Information capacity via trade data mirror analysis: a case study of Chinese Maritime Customs, 1864–1938

Seminari d'Estudiants del Doctorat en Història Econòmica

Songlin Wang (Universitat de Barcelona), Information capacity via trade data mirror analysis: a case study of Chinese Maritime Customs, 1864–1938

Directors: Anna Carreras-Marín & José Alejandro Peres-Cajías

Resum

This paper revisits once again the role that the Chinese Maritime Customs (CMC) may have played in China’s long-term development. We do so in a novel way: we analyze whether the Chinese Maritime Customs and the institutional changes that it brought about are related to the improvements in China’s state capacity to collect its foreign trade information.

We assess the impact of the Chinese Maritime Customs in China’s state information capacity through a foreign trade data accuracy study. We measure the foreign trade data accuracy with a “mirror analysis” by comparing bilateral trade data registered by the two trade partners. We also use a multilateral aggregate index with a wider range of countries to check the similarity between export and import countries’ data. For this purpose we collected the primary sources of foreign trade for several years of China, the United States of America, Great Britain and Japan. Using this dataset, we compare Chinese exports data and its main trade partners’ imports data.

The results of foreign trade data accuracy study show that, since the beginning of the 20th century, coinciding with the end of the Boxer Rebellion (1899–1901), the establishment of the Republic of China in 1912 and other new institutional changes, Chinese sources show a substantial improvement in measuring foreign trade flows with the major Western powers (the United States of America and Great Britain). Moreover, the paper shows that the statistical discrepancies could be related to the role played by Hong Kong as a trade entrepot.

However, the data accuracy results in this paper demonstrate that CMC’s institutional change was not able to solve all the problems of China’s foreign trade data. On one hand, the trade data mirror analysis with Japan shows persistent differences. These differences could be the result of geopolitical changes between China and Japan since the end of the 19th century and the establishment of treaty ports by Japan in the northeast of China. This made it more difficult for CMC to deal with the increased smuggling activities and measure foreign trade. On the other hand, these geopolitical changes, the instability of the world economy and the change in the value of currencies in 1930s were also reflected in a worsening of the quality of CMC’s registered trade data.

Paraules clau: Information capacity, Foreign Trade, Data Accuracy, China

Hora: 14:30 hores
Lloc: Híbrid. Aula 2019 (Edifici 696), Facultat d'Economia i Empresa i on line en aquest enllaç.