IMF global forecasts: it’s not the COVID-19 crisis, but that’s no consolation
22/04/2025
Sergi Basco
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Profesor at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Barcelona
Sergi Basco
Profesor at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Barcelona
The International Monetary Fund has just presented its global economic forecasts and one does not need to read between the lines to conclude that the Fund’s analysts give figures because it is their job, but not because they are sure of them.
Springtime in Washington
Every early spring, the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are held in Washington. Over the course of a week, seminars, briefings and press conferences focus on the global economy, international development and world financial markets. At both the Spring Meetings and the Annual Meeting, held each autumn, the IMF publishes its global economic growth forecasts.
For its Spring Meeting 2025, the IMF has published a baseline forecast, but also an addendum analysing the tariff events that took place between 9 and 14 April. According to the baseline publication, world GDP would grow by 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. For the euro area, growth would be 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.
Beyond the numbers, these forecasts represent a substantial (downward) revision. The global decrease for 2025 (compared to the January revision) is 0.5%, and 0.2% for the euro area.
I would now like to focus on what I believe is the key to the IMF report and the explanation for its pessimistic tone: we live in a much more uncertain world than in January 2025.
This article was originally published in Spanish on The Conversation.
Every early spring, the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are held in Washington. Over the course of a week, seminars, briefings and press conferences focus on the global economy, international development and world financial markets. At both the Spring Meetings and the Annual Meeting, held each autumn, the IMF publishes its global economic growth forecasts.
For its Spring Meeting 2025, the IMF has published a baseline forecast, but also an addendum analysing the tariff events that took place between 9 and 14 April. According to the baseline publication, world GDP would grow by 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. For the euro area, growth would be 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.
Beyond the numbers, these forecasts represent a substantial (downward) revision. The global decrease for 2025 (compared to the January revision) is 0.5%, and 0.2% for the euro area.
I would now like to focus on what I believe is the key to the IMF report and the explanation for its pessimistic tone: we live in a much more uncertain world than in January 2025.
This article was originally published in Spanish on The Conversation.