Climate change will increase cooling demand in Catalonia and will reduce heating demand
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Research
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Sustainability
(11/04/2025)
The climate crisis will profoundly change the map of energy demand in Catalonia in the coming decades. According to the doctoral thesis defended at the University of Barcelona, Les necessitats de climatització a Catalunya per l'efecte del canvi climàtic, the increase in temperatures associated with climate change will cause a general increase in cooling needs throughout the country, especially in coastal and urban areas, while heating needs will decrease progressively, more markedly in mountain and inland regions. This uneven development poses a major challenge for energy transition, urban design and territorial management.
News
|
Research
|
Sustainability
11/04/2025
The climate crisis will profoundly change the map of energy demand in Catalonia in the coming decades. According to the doctoral thesis defended at the University of Barcelona, Les necessitats de climatització a Catalunya per l'efecte del canvi climàtic, the increase in temperatures associated with climate change will cause a general increase in cooling needs throughout the country, especially in coastal and urban areas, while heating needs will decrease progressively, more markedly in mountain and inland regions. This uneven development poses a major challenge for energy transition, urban design and territorial management.
The thesis, written by Xavier Balagué and supervised by Emeritus Professor Javier Martín Vide and Professor Joan Albert López Bustins, from the Department of Geography at the University of Barcelona’s Faculty of Geography and History, and linked to the activity of the Climate Change and Landscape Ecology research group, provides an innovative approach to study the impact of climate change on energy needs at the local level.
A climatic geography of air conditioning
The thesis is based on a detailed analysis of current and future air conditioning needs in Catalonia (both heating and cooling), using the degree-day variable as a key indicator. This methodology makes it possible to convert daily temperatures into specific energy data, suitable for territorial analysis. Using a statistical multiple regression model combined with spatial interpolation, Balagué has regionalized these needs at the municipal scale, both for the observed period and for future scenarios, according to different emission trajectories (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), climate scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways, which combine hypotheses of economic development and greenhouse gases emissions: SSP1 2.6 is an optimistic scenario with low emissions, SSP2 4.5 is a medium scenario, and SSP5 8.5 is a highest emission scenario.
The study combines real data from more than 100 weather stations of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia with global climate models to simulate the evolution of energy demand up to the year 2100. The key geographical variables to understand this evolution are altitude, latitude, slope and distance to the sea.
Forecast: more heat, less cold
The results show a clear trend: in all scenarios, cooling needs (CCDs, cooling degree-days, an index that measures the energy demand for cooling spaces) will increase significantly over the century, while heating needs (HDDs, heating degree days, an index measuring the energy demand for space heating) will experience a gradual reduction. In the most pessimistic scenarios (SSP5 8.5), the coast and Terres de Ponent could triple their current cooling needs before the end of the century. The Pyrenees, on the other hand, will remain an area with high heating needs, although they will also decrease.
A climatic geography of air conditioning
The thesis is based on a detailed analysis of current and future air conditioning needs in Catalonia (both heating and cooling), using the degree-day variable as a key indicator. This methodology makes it possible to convert daily temperatures into specific energy data, suitable for territorial analysis. Using a statistical multiple regression model combined with spatial interpolation, Balagué has regionalized these needs at the municipal scale, both for the observed period and for future scenarios, according to different emission trajectories (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), climate scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways, which combine hypotheses of economic development and greenhouse gases emissions: SSP1 2.6 is an optimistic scenario with low emissions, SSP2 4.5 is a medium scenario, and SSP5 8.5 is a highest emission scenario.
The study combines real data from more than 100 weather stations of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia with global climate models to simulate the evolution of energy demand up to the year 2100. The key geographical variables to understand this evolution are altitude, latitude, slope and distance to the sea.
Forecast: more heat, less cold
The results show a clear trend: in all scenarios, cooling needs (CCDs, cooling degree-days, an index that measures the energy demand for cooling spaces) will increase significantly over the century, while heating needs (HDDs, heating degree days, an index measuring the energy demand for space heating) will experience a gradual reduction. In the most pessimistic scenarios (SSP5 8.5), the coast and Terres de Ponent could triple their current cooling needs before the end of the century. The Pyrenees, on the other hand, will remain an area with high heating needs, although they will also decrease.
“Excessive heat is the main meteorological extreme that we will face in Catalonia in the coming decades, particularly serious because of its negative effect on the health of elderly people living in conditions of energy poverty, without air conditioning”
This dynamic has direct implications for public policy. The energy imbalance between summer and winter, combined with increased humidity and temperature sensation, will increase the vulnerability of densely populated areas. The author notes that “our territory heats up unevenly. Knowing where and how the climate changes is essential to prepare and adapt effectively”.
Javier Martín-Vide, emeritus professor of Geography and director of the thesis, explains: “Excessive heat is the main meteorological extreme that we will face in Catalonia in the coming decades, particularly serious because of its negative effect on the health of elderly people living in conditions of energy poverty, without air conditioning”.
Towards a new territorial and energy planning
The thesis concludes that it is necessary to incorporate these climate projections into energy and urban planning, and to promote the energy rehabilitation of buildings, the adaptation of the residential stock and the development of infrastructures designed for thermal comfort. It also suggests that it is necessary to integrate climate criteria into building regulations and to promote social awareness of the impact of climate change on everyday energy use.
The study is a valuable contribution from both a scientific and practical point of view, and can become a tool for local administrations and public or private entities that want to anticipate scenarios and adapt their policies to the conditions that will mark the future climate of the country.
Xavier Balagué Boldú is a computer scientist, he holds a master’s degree in meteorology and is a researcher in applied climatology. His doctoral thesis was supervised by Professor Javier Martín Vide, a leading figure in the field of Catalan climatology, and was developed in collaboration with the UB’s Climatology Group and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. In addition, the author has combined academic research with professional activity in the environmental and technological sector.
Balagué Boldú, Xavier. Les necessitats de climatització a Catalunya per l’efecte del canvi climàtic. University of Barcelona, March 2024. Doctoral Programme in Geography, Land Planning and Environmental Management. Supervised by Javier Martín Vide and Joan Albert López Bustins. Available in the UB digital repository: https://www.tdx.cat/handle/10803/692286?show=full&locale-attribute=es.
Javier Martín-Vide, emeritus professor of Geography and director of the thesis, explains: “Excessive heat is the main meteorological extreme that we will face in Catalonia in the coming decades, particularly serious because of its negative effect on the health of elderly people living in conditions of energy poverty, without air conditioning”.
Towards a new territorial and energy planning
The thesis concludes that it is necessary to incorporate these climate projections into energy and urban planning, and to promote the energy rehabilitation of buildings, the adaptation of the residential stock and the development of infrastructures designed for thermal comfort. It also suggests that it is necessary to integrate climate criteria into building regulations and to promote social awareness of the impact of climate change on everyday energy use.
The study is a valuable contribution from both a scientific and practical point of view, and can become a tool for local administrations and public or private entities that want to anticipate scenarios and adapt their policies to the conditions that will mark the future climate of the country.
Xavier Balagué Boldú is a computer scientist, he holds a master’s degree in meteorology and is a researcher in applied climatology. His doctoral thesis was supervised by Professor Javier Martín Vide, a leading figure in the field of Catalan climatology, and was developed in collaboration with the UB’s Climatology Group and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. In addition, the author has combined academic research with professional activity in the environmental and technological sector.
Balagué Boldú, Xavier. Les necessitats de climatització a Catalunya per l’efecte del canvi climàtic. University of Barcelona, March 2024. Doctoral Programme in Geography, Land Planning and Environmental Management. Supervised by Javier Martín Vide and Joan Albert López Bustins. Available in the UB digital repository: https://www.tdx.cat/handle/10803/692286?show=full&locale-attribute=es.